Edition 23044

The Hedge Fund Housing Battle, The Best Day For Your Clients To Buy A Home & We're All Waiting On The Jobs Report.

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Game Changer in Real Estate: Congress Throws Down the Gauntlet on Hedge Funds!

Imagine a world where your dream home isn't just a bidding war against Wall Street giants. That's the future Congress is fighting for with a groundbreaking new bill.

War Fx GIF by BasketsFX

In a bold move that could revolutionize the housing market, Democrats in Congress have rolled out a powerhouse bill – the "End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act of 2023." Spearheaded by Senator Jeff Merkley and Representative Adam Smith, this isn't just legislation; it's a declaration of war against hedge funds monopolizing single-family homes.

Here's the deal: This bill is all about leveling the playing field. It's about giving regular folks a fair shot at homeownership, without being outbid by the deep pockets of hedge funds. The plan? Force these funds to offload their single-family properties over the next decade, and slam the door shut on future purchases.

But wait, there's more. Another bill, the "American Neighborhoods Protection Act," is throwing a one-two punch by hitting corporate owners of over 75 homes with a hefty annual fee. Think of it as a reality check for the big players, with the cash funneling into down payment assistance for families.

Why does this matter? Because we're talking about the American Dream here. Homeownership shouldn't be a privilege reserved for the elite. With hedge funds scooping up properties left and right, prices have skyrocketed, and regular Americans are left in the dust.

Critics, like David Howard of the National Rental Home Council, argue that the real villain is the housing shortage. Sure, we need more homes, but let's not ignore the elephant in the room – Wall Street's stranglehold on the market.

In the end, this isn't just about houses; it's about fairness, opportunity, and the heart of the American economy. As we gear up for the 2024 elections, all eyes are on how this plays out. Will Congress score a win for the average Joe, or will the hedge fund giants keep their grip on the market? Stay tuned, because this battle is just getting started.

The Big Players in Real Estate: Hedge Funds' Home-Buying Spree!

Alright, let's dive into the real estate rumble where hedge funds and asset managers are playing Monopoly with single-family homes. It's a big game, and the stakes are high – especially for the average Joe looking to buy a home.

Daniel Craig Monopoly GIF by Sky HISTORY UK

First off, let's set the record straight about Blackrock. Despite the buzz, they're not in the business of buying single-family homes. They're more into multifamily properties and apartment complexes. So, if you're hearing they're snatching up your dream house, that's a mix-up with Blackstone.

Now, speaking of Blackstone, these guys have been in the home-buying game since 2012, initially scooping up foreclosed homes from banks. But since 2017, they've shifted gears, buying homes directly from sellers – and not just a few, but in bulk.

Enter Invitation Homes, a heavyweight in the single-family rental market. After merging with Starwood Waypoint Homes in 2017, they became the largest player in the U.S., with a portfolio of about 82,000 single-family rentals. That's a lot of homes under one corporate roof!

Then there's Invesco Real Estate, a big name with a hefty real estate presence. In 2021, they backed Mynd with a cool $5 billion to buy single-family rental homes. Talk about deep pockets!

And don't forget American Homes 4 Rent. These guys are major players too, owning over 58,000 homes as of mid-2022. They're not just buying properties; they're shaping markets.

But it's not just the big names in the game. There are online hedge funds like RealEstateHedgeFundBuyer.com and HedgeFundOffers.co. They're like the digital brokers of the real estate world, connecting sellers directly to hedge funds, promising quick sales and top dollar – all without the hassle of traditional real estate transactions.

So, what's the big picture here? With the Federal Reserve tightening the monetary reins, mortgage costs are climbing, making it tougher for regular folks to buy homes. This shift could make renting more appealing and affordable than buying, especially as these hedge funds and asset managers continue to gobble up properties.

In this high-stakes real estate game, it's crucial to stay informed and understand who the key players are. Remember, in the world of real estate, knowledge is power – and in this market, you need all the power you can get.

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Hack the System: The Best Days to Buy a Home in 2023 Revealed!

Hey hustlers, it's time to get real about real estate! ATTOM just dropped some killer insights that are about to change the game for your homebuyers in 2023. This isn't just data; it's your secret weapon to beat the market.

Happy Jimmy Fallon GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

So, here's the deal: ATTOM, these data wizards, analyzed over 47 million home sales from the last decade. And guess what? They've pinpointed the absolute best day to buy a home – January 9th. That's right, January 9th is where it's at! On this day, you're clients are only paying a 3.8% premium above the automated valuation model (AVM), compared to a whopping 14.4% on May 28th. Mind-blowing, right?

But wait, there's more. Other golden days include December 4th, October 9th, October 2nd, October 10th, and September 7th. These are the days when you're clients are not just buying a house; they’re making a smart investment.

And let's talk about the best months to buy. Nationally, October is your go-to month with a 6.2% premium, followed by September, November, December, and August. These are the months when you clients play the market like a pro.

Now, for my state-wise hustlers, some states are offering insane discounts. Michigan in October, New Hampshire in December, Hawaii in June, New Jersey in February, and Illinois in October – these are your jackpot months.

This isn't just about buying a house; it's about making a strategic move. It's about understanding the market and playing it to your advantage. So, mark your calendars, set your reminders, and get ready to make your move.

For the full breakdown and more killer insights, check out ATTOM's analysis right here. Remember, in the game of real estate, timing is everything. Let's go get those deals!"

In the ever-evolving landscape of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and treasury yields, understanding the market's pulse is crucial.

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Imagine the housing market is like a big game where the rules keep changing slightly every day. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Treasury yields are like the scores in this game. They help us understand how the game is going and what might happen next.

Think of MBS like a big pool where lots of home loans are put together. Investors buy parts of this pool. The price of these parts can go up or down, just like items in a store during a sale. When the prices of MBS go down, it usually means that mortgage rates (the cost of borrowing money for a house) might go up.

Treasury yields are a bit like the interest rates on a super safe loan to the government. When these yields go up, it's often a sign that mortgage rates might go up too.

Now, the jobs report is like a big announcement that can change the game. It tells us how many jobs are being created and gives clues about the health of the economy. If lots of jobs are created, it might mean the economy is doing well, and interest rates could go up. But if not many jobs are created, it might mean the economy isn't doing as well, and interest rates could stay the same or even go down.

This is important because it affects how much people can afford to spend on houses. When mortgage rates are low, more people can afford to buy homes. But when rates go up, some people might not be able to afford as much, and it could be harder to sell houses.

“So, lets geek out a little bit and look at the data”

Keeping an eye on MBS, Treasury yields, and big reports like the jobs report helps realtors understand what's happening in the housing market and prepare for what might come next!

Thinking Calculating GIF by Verohallinto

On Thursday, we witnessed a relatively calm day in the market, but the undercurrents of change were palpable. MBS lost an eighth, and 10-year yields nudged up a few basis points, aligning with their best levels in recent months. This stability, however, hinges on the upcoming jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key determinant in the rate's trajectory.

The Calm Before the Storm: Thursday's market was a classic case of the calm before the storm. With no significant market movers or directional shifts, the focus was on the jobless claims, which came in at 220k versus the 222k forecast. Continued claims stood at 1861k against a forecast of 1910k, slightly lower than the previous 1925k. These figures, though seemingly minor, play a significant role in shaping market expectations and investor sentiment.

The Morning Hours: As the day progressed, the market saw modest additional selling post-claims. The 10-year yields were up by 6bps at 4.174, and MBS were down by 10 ticks (0.31). This movement, albeit slight, indicated a cautious approach by investors, bracing for the potential impact of the upcoming jobs report.

Afternoon Recovery: By noon, the market had made a decent recovery. The 10-year yields were up only 1.2bps at 4.125, and MBS were down by an eighth. This recovery, though modest, was a testament to the market's resilience and the investors' adaptive strategies in navigating the uncertain terrain.

Evening Trends: The market witnessed modest weakness as the day neared its end. The 10-year yields were up by 2.9bps at 4.148, and MBS were down by 3 ticks (0.09). This slight uptick in yields could be attributed to the market's anticipation of the jobs report, a critical factor in determining the future course of interest rates.

The Anticipated Jobs Report: The upcoming jobs report is a pivotal moment for the market. A significant deviation from expectations could lead to substantial shifts in rates. A report considerably below expectations could challenge the 4.0% level in 10-year yields, while an exceptionally positive report could drive rates in the opposite direction. However, it's essential to note that the average beat or miss is around 50k and 100k, respectively, indicating that anything is possible.

Market Implications: The implications of these market movements are far-reaching. For homebuyers and investors, understanding these trends is crucial in making informed decisions. The fluctuating yields and MBS prices directly impact mortgage rates, affecting affordability and investment returns. As we navigate these changes, staying informed and agile is key to capitalizing on market opportunities.

Conclusion: In conclusion, the market's current stability is a delicate balance, heavily reliant on upcoming economic reports. As investors and industry professionals, our focus should be on interpreting these signals and adapting our strategies accordingly. The real estate and mortgage markets are inextricably linked to these financial indicators, and our ability to anticipate and respond to these changes will define our success in this dynamic environment.

Looking Ahead: As we look forward to the jobs report and beyond, it's essential to stay updated and prepared for potential market shifts. Whether you're a homebuyer, investor, or industry professional, understanding the nuances of MBS and treasury yields is crucial in navigating the market effectively. Stay tuned for more insights and analysis as we decode the market's movements and their implications on the real estate and mortgage landscape.

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